Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 12.351934 14.153802 16.098129 18.348536 20.877744 23.628684 26.843464
2025-03-16 9.539880 11.940134 14.735087 18.215563 22.417885 27.311387 33.423591
2025-03-23 8.202233 10.864636 14.118959 18.362256 23.718552 30.221978 38.679008
2025-03-30 7.370970 10.264527 13.955203 18.963766 25.532723 33.797899 44.918571
2025-04-06 6.450606 9.397886 13.303514 18.795846 26.246811 35.918959 49.324212
2025-04-13 5.436906 8.275733 12.178937 17.858147 25.813933 36.449933 51.606326
2025-04-20 5.019564 7.933681 12.068804 18.262194 27.176407 39.391417 57.205662
2025-04-27 4.646672 7.609959 11.941327 18.606392 28.443560 42.233663 62.777125
2025-05-04 4.205102 7.132828 11.538806 18.500277 29.028956 44.116926 67.058483
2025-05-11 3.782524 6.639878 11.063648 18.234225 29.336903 45.586044 70.779419
2025-05-18 3.479732 6.307559 10.802879 18.264161 30.069848 47.684930 75.486773
2025-05-25 3.242820 6.059831 10.651231 18.443678 31.025664 50.139902 80.810353
2025-06-01 2.990680 5.768368 10.414323 18.482455 31.782968 52.363330 85.945788
2025-06-08 2.722375 5.422489 10.058508 18.297641 32.165656 54.020898 90.284080
2025-06-15 2.543495 5.218504 9.923086 18.462364 33.109903 56.579438 96.111675
2025-06-22 2.449820 5.163106 10.039687 19.060713 34.798765 60.391200 104.080034
2025-06-29 2.249212 4.883632 9.733395 18.894079 35.174936 62.080750 108.685357
2025-07-06 1.961404 4.403726 9.022210 17.951297 34.150235 61.401943 109.368131
2025-07-13 1.877769 4.326466 9.053727 18.357468 35.502992 64.740465 116.830422
2025-07-20 1.792536 4.237391 9.054628 18.703197 36.759788 67.961065 124.211373
2025-07-27 1.661469 4.038181 8.825509 18.596613 37.186099 69.764997 129.243004
2025-08-03 1.524432 3.812028 8.524666 18.329307 37.296023 71.012777 133.352402
2025-08-10 1.429457 3.669858 8.381967 18.359386 37.956697 73.249575 139.258611